WARNING: If you clicked through to this article hoping for some sort of prognostication or locks on who will advance from the WFTDA West Regional Playoffs to the WFTDA Championships, you’re in the wrong place. I leave that kind of thing to the professionals.
Instead, what follows is a summary of each of the ten teams which will be skating this weekend in Sacremento – where they are ranked by various derby websites, their 2010 win-loss record, and their 2010 record against opponents they may be facing in the playoffs. To placate those who feel I should make some sort of prediction, I did include my thoughts on each team’s chance at an upset (basically just my estimation of a team’s percent chance at getting a win versus a higher ranked opponent), as well as a range of places that I feel each team could finish.
For those of you who may be unaware, Derbytron is short for All-Knowing Derbytron, and FTS is short for Flat Track Stats. I am pretty sure that if you’re reading this, you know what DNN stands for.
#1 Oly Rollers
DNN: #1 Derbytron: #3 FTS : #1 2010 record: 9-0
2010 wins & losses against Regional Playoff opponents
2/26 Win v. Rose City (+8) at Wild West Showdown
5/22 Win v. Rocky Mountain (+20)
6/27 Win v. Tuscon (+127)
7/18 Win v. Jet City (+142)
What is left to say about the Oly Rollers? They finished the season at a perfect 9-0, and are considered by most to be the number one team in the nation. However, though they are unbeaten so far, their 2010 schedule was by no means the most challenging schedule played by a west region team. While they remain the team to beat, their schedule this year may not have them in top shape going into the playoffs.
Chance of an upset: 0% (They’re the number one team, there is nobody higher for them to upset.)
Likely finish: 1st or 2nd place
#2 Rocky Mountain Rollergirls
DNN: #3 Derbytron: #2 FTS: #3 2010 record: 8-1
2010 wins & losses against Regional Playoff opponents
2/28 Win v. Bay Area (+178) at Wild West Showdown
4/3 Win v. Duke City (+168)
5/21 Win @ Rose City (+31)
5/22 Loss @ Olympia (-20)
5/23 Win @ Rat City (+37)
Rocky Mountain rolls into the playoffs with an impressive 8-1 record, having faced five of the other nine teams that will be competing at regionals. Their only loss this season was to the Oly Rollers back in May (by 20 points, in Olympia). Whereas I do believe they stand a chance to upset Oly if given the opportunity to face them, it is not out of the realm of possibilities that they could also be upset.
Chance of an upset: 5%
Likely finish: 2nd to 4th</p>
Can either team top Oly?
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#3 Denver Roller Dolls
DNN: #5 Derbytron: #4 FTS: #2 2010 record: 7-1
2010 wins & losses against Regional Playoff opponents
5/15 Win @ Duke City (+214)
6/12 Win v. Rat City (+70)
Denver – along with Sacred City – have had the fewest bouts against west playoff opponents this season. Both were fairly impressive wins, on their way to compiling a 7-1 record overall. Their defensive prowess have kept them at the top of the west, and one should not expect anything less from their performance this weekend.
Chance of an upset: 15%
Likely to finish: 2nd to 4th
#4 Rose City Rollers
DNN: #7 Derbytron: #11 FTS: #16 2010 record: 7-4
2010 wins & losses against Regional Playoff opponents
2/26 Loss v. Olympia (-8) at Wild West Showdown
2/27 Win v. Bay Area (+127) at Wild West Showdown
5/15 Win v. Rat City (+19)
5/21 Loss v. Rocky Mountain (-31)
8/13 Loss v. Rat City (-44)
8/15 Win v. Bay Area (+4)
Many have said that Rose City (and Rat City) is the beginning of the second-tier of teams in the west region. They split a pair of bouts against Rat City this season, lost to Oly and Rocky Mountain, and beat Bay Area twice. Rose City has not skated well in regional playoff action in the past. Will this be the year they get the monkey off their back?
So, who do you think is winning this thing?
Chance of an upset: 15%
Likely to finish: 3rd to 5th
#5 Rat City Rollergirls
DNN: #6 Derbytron: #8 FTS: #11 2010 record: 6-5
2010 wins & losses against Regional Playoff opponents
2/26 Win v. Tuscon (+215) at Wild West Showdown
5/15 Loss @ Rose City (-19)
5/23 Loss v. Rocky Mountain (-37)
6/12 Loss @ Denver (-70)
8/13 Win @ Rose City (+44)
8/14 Loss v. Bay Area (-1) at Rose City
Rat City and Rose City have been inextricably linked for the past couple of seasons. Both teams have battled one another on the track, and for rankings. Rat City’s 6-5 record is nearly identical to Rose City’s 7-4 record, and both teams have shared a number of opponents. Rat City, though, has been further in the derby post season, and that experience may well be a determining factor in where they finish.
Chance of an upset: 50%
Likely to finish: 3rd to 6th
#6 Bay Area Derby Girls
DNN: #8 Derbytron: #9 FTS: #18 2010 record: 5-5
2010 wins & losses against Regional Playoff opponents
It has been a roller coaster of a season for the Bay Area Derby Girls. Their season started with a rough showing at the Wild West Showdown – falling to Rose City and Rocky Mountain by more than 100 points each. However, at ECDX, it looked as though things were turning around for BAD. They followed that performance with a win against Rat City and a near win against Rose City at the Hometown Throw Down in August. How far will they be able to ride their momentum through the playoffs?
Chance of an upset: 35%
Likely to finish: 4th to 6th
#7 Jet City Rollergirls
DNN: #23 Derbytron: #14 FTS: #22 2010 record: 4-2
2010 wins & losses against Regional Playoff opponents
2/27 Loss v. Duke City (-14) at Wild West Showdown
6/26 Win v. Tuscon (+129)
7/18 Loss @ Olympia (-142)
Jet City finished their season with a record of 4-2, earning themselves an invitation to their first WFTDA playoff in only their second season. There is considerable buzz around the Jet City squad, wondering if they can catch lightning in a bottle similar to how Rocky Mountain did in the 2009 playoffs. Unfortunately for them, there are considerable powerhouses ranked
Jet City will be looking for paybacks
ahead of them in the tournament.
Chance of an upset: 5%
Likely to finish: 7th to 8th
#8 Duke City Derby
DNN: Not ranked Derbytron: #27 FTS: #25 2010 record: 5-4
2010 wins & losses against Regional Playoff opponents
2/27 Win v. Sacred City (+71) at Wild West Showdown
2/27 Win v. Jet City (+14) at Wild West Showdown
4/3 Loss @ Rocky Mountain (-168)
5/15 Loss v. Denver (-214)
Duke City started their 2010 season with a bang, picking up wins against Sacred City and Jet City at the Wild West Showdown back in February. Though their squad finished with a 5-4 record in 2010, two of their losses were against the upper echelon teams in the west region, by significant differences.
Chance of an upset: 30%
Likely to finish: 7th to 9th
#9 Tuscon Roller Derby
DNN: Not ranked Derbytron: #38 FTS: #32 2010 record: 3-3
2010 wins & losses against Regional Playoff opponents
2/26 Loss v. Rat City (-215) at Wild West Showdown
6/26 Loss @ Jet City (-129)
6/27 Loss @ Olympia (-127)
The Saddletramps again find themselves in the regional playoffs, having gone 3-3 this season. Unfortunately, their three losses this season have all come against higher ranked teams they may be facing in this year’s playoffs. A fairly impressive showing against Oly back in June (on the heels of a loss to Jet City) is an example of this squad’s tenacity. Though it will take a lot more than just tenacity to advance through this difficult playoff bracket.
Chance of an upset: 10%
Likely to finish: 9th or 10th
#10 Sacred City Derby Girls
DNN: Not ranked Derbytron: #41 FTS: #44 2010 record: 3-3
2010 wins & losses against Regional Playoff opponents
2/27 Loss v. Duke City (-71) at Wild West Showdown
5/08 Loss @ Bay Area (-121)
Like Tuscon, the Sacred City Derby Girls ended their 2010 regular season with a 3-3 record. Their schedule did not have them facing any of the top teams in the west this year – Bay Area being their highest ranked opponent. Their inaugural playoff experience will probably be a rough one – one of the drawbacks to playing in such a talent heavy region.
Chance of an upset: 15%
Likely to finish: 9th or 10th
It looks as though Olympia, Denver, and Rocky Mountain will most likely be the three teams advancing to the WFTDA Championships from the west region. Rose City, Rat City, and Bay Area are your likely spoilers – and the possibility of one of these three teams advancing is better than average. There will be some blowouts along the way, but there should also be more than enough tight, competitive bouts to make this a memorable regional playoff.